Altavox Example Essay

Altavox Excel Info (1)

Week12345678910111213Average

Atlanta3345373855301858473723554040

Boston2635414046485518624430455042

Chicago4434225548726228279535454747

Dallas2742354051647065554338474248

Los Angles3243544046744035453848565046

Total162199189213246288245204236257174248229222

Altavox Data (2)

Week-5-4-3-2-1

Atlanta4538305837

Boston6218484035

Chicago6222724448

Dallas4235406443

LA4340544635

Total254153244252198

 

Question one particular

Consider using a simple moving average version. Experiment with versions using five week's and three weeks' past data. The past data in every region is given below (week – one particular is the week before week 1 in the table, -2 is 2 weeks before week 1, etc . ). Assess the forecast that could have been produced over the 13 weeks for every distributor using the mean complete deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as standards. Comparison of designs:

ModelsMean overall deviation (MAD)Mean absolute percent error (MAPE)Tracking signal

averagemaxminaveragemaxminaveragemaxmin

Three week moving averages

11. 13

17. twenty eight

7. 9230%

46%16%-. 823. 75-4. 57

Five week moving average10. 73

15. 57

several. 928%40%16%11. seventeen

5. seventeen

-2. seventy two

Five week exponential smoothing11. 58

18. 09

almost 8. 5729%43%

18%0. 621. 93-0. 59

3 week exponential smoothing11. 1317. 787. 8929%45%17%-. 271. 74-2. 66 Get worse demand model30. 57

14%

0. 93

 

Query 2

Subsequent consider using a simple exponential smoothing version. In your evaluation, test two alpha principles,. 2 and. 4. Utilize same criteria for considering the version as in problem 1 . Assume that the initial previous forecast pertaining to the style using a great alpha value of. two is the earlier three-week common. For the model employing an leader of. some assume that the previous forecast may be the past five-week average. 3 weeks Shifting average

Week-3-2-112345678910111213average

Forecasted principles for 13 weeks

Atlanta30583741. 6741. 6741. 6744. 0041. 2042. 0442. 1142. 2042. 3141. 9742. 1342. 1542. 1542. 15 Boston48403541. 0041. 0041. 0039. 6039. 5240. 4240. 3140. 1740. 0040. 0940. 2040. 1540. 1240. 28 Chicago72444854. 6754. 6754. 6751. 2052. 6453. 5753. 3553. 0852. 7753. 0853. 1753. 0953. 0453. 31 Dallas40644349. 0049. 0049. 0050. 8048. 1649. 1949. 2349. 2849. 3349. 0449. 2149. 2249. 2249. 21 LA54463545. 0045. 0045. 0043. 2042. 6444. 1744. 0043. 8043. 5643. 6343. 8343. 7743. 7243. 96 Total244. 00252. 00198. 00231. 33231. 33231. 33228. 80224. 16229. 39229. 00228. 54227. 98227. 81228. 55228. 38228. 25228. 84

sumTracking Sign

Forecast Error-8. 673. 33-4. 67-6. 0013. 80-12. 04-24. 1115. 804. 69-4. 97-19. 1312. 85-2. 15-31. 27-3. 07

-15. 00-6. 000. 000. 406. 487. 5814. 69-22. 1722. 003. 91-10. 204. 859. 8816. 411. 73

-10. 67-20. 67-32. 673. 80-4. 6418. 438. 65-25. 08-25. 7741. 92-18. 17-8. 09-6. 04-78. 99-4. 57

-22. 00-7. 00-14. 00-10. 802. 8414. 8120. 7715. 725. 67-6. 04-11. 21-2. 22-7. 22-20. 68-1. 92

-13. 00-2. 009. 00-3. 203. 3629. 83-4. 00-8. 801. 44-5. 634. 1712. 236. 2829. 673. 75

Complete ErrorsMAD

almost eight. 673. 334. 676. 0013. 8012. 0424. 1115. 804. 694. 9719. 1312. 852. 1510. 1715. 006. 500. 000. 406. 487. 5814. 6922. 1722. 003. 9110. 204. 859. 889. 4710. 6720. 6732. 673. 804. 6418. 438. 6525. 0825. 7741. 9218. 178. 096. 0417. twenty eight

22. 007. 0014. 0010. 802. 8414. 8120. 7715. 725. 676. 0411. 212. 227. 2210. 7913. 002. 009. 003. 203. 3629. 834. 008. 801. 445. 634. 1712. 236. 287. 92

Calculations for MAPEMAPE

0. 260. 070. 130. 160. two hundred fifity. 401. 340. 270. 75. 130. 830. 230. 0533%

0. 580. 170. 000. 010. a hundred and forty. 16...

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